Johannesburg, 24 January 2022 – In a strong indication that South Africa’s post-COVID-19 recovery is on track, JSE-listed REIT Redefine Properties says retailers are starting to sign longer leases in lockstep with increased footfall at its properties.
Sales and total turnover across the retail portfolio are already in excess of pre-COVID-19 levels, and Redefine forecasts that this growth will continue, driven by essential services, apparel, and the recovery of entertainment in shopping centres.
“The negative lease renewal reversions have already started improving and the continued growth of retail sales will see this trend continuing in 2023. Total foot count is now at 94% of pre-COVID levels, with a 2% growth on the prior year. This is an improvement from the average of 80% seen throughout the year when compared to pre-COVID levels,” says Nashil Chotoki, Redefine’s National retail asset manager.
However, this does not mean the economy is out of the woods yet, as rising interest rates and inflation in the cost of food, fuel and electricity will suppress consumers’ disposable income.
“Consumer loyalty to shopping centre and brands will be more strongly driven by environmental and community support initiatives. I expect consumer support to grow for locally manufactured brands such as Bathu and Drip, and locally manufactured will influence spending behaviour,” says Chotoki.
“Most Gauteng residents travelled out of Gauteng for their holidays, and therefore the large format centres in Cape Town had better total footfall and footfall growth than those in Gauteng, while KwaZulu-Natal was muted on the back of the current water quality challenges in the province,” says Chotoki.
Uneven recovery across regions
“To me, these trends indicate that foot count will, on the whole, remain below pre-COVID-19 levels for the short term, as some stores are still struggling to fully recover and the recovery is not equal across regions or business types, but the foot count recovery of large format centres will continue due to the appeal of one-stop-shop solutions,” Chotoki notes.
Sit-down restaurants were the most impacted on by COVID-19, but Redefine has recorded a recovery of this category to pre-COVID levels. However, Chotoki warns that the increased operating cost for owners has impacted on profitability for this category.
Among other interesting trends, cinemas showed positive growth, driven mainly by specific popular content releases from Hollywood, and this may start to change the trend back towards cinemas driven by value-focused entertainment. Sales growth in workwear/formal wear is expected to continue as more workers return to the office.
Loadshedding and the costs associated with backup power continue to dampen the outlook.
“This will continue to impact on margins for property owners and retailers, who will not be able to pass this on to constrained consumers,” says Chotoki.
Other key trends to watch include mergers and acquisitions by listed retailers, while diversity in products into new retail concepts and brands, such as Checkers Outdoor, Checkers fashion, TFG Outlet, Mr Price Baby, is set to continue.
While online sales will continue to be part of the retail landscape, especially for staples and electronic products, Chotoki says it will be interesting to see how consumers adapt when Amazon brands join the fray.
Focus on Value
In this environment, Redefine will continue to work closely with independent retailers to develop their brands.
“Our Smarten program has already achieved good results, with Kyalami Corner in the last financial year achieving a trading density increase of 30.5%. Another 150 tenants have been identified to participate in the programme for the 2023 financial year.
“Redefine has increased exposure to value and essential services retailers by 21,720m2 and now occupy 20% of retail GLA with the plan to further increase this to 25% in the short term.”
Redefine is also looking at initiatives to reduce diesel consumption during load shedding and reduce the cost impact this has on retailers, in line with broad energy-saving initiatives across the retail portfolio.
Managing Risks as War in Ukraine Rages On
Agata Sekula, Board Member responsible for investment and asset management at Polish retailer EPP (acquired by Redefine in February last year), says EPP ended 2022 with tenant turnover in most categories above 2019 and footfall approaching pre-pandemic levels.
However, the pandemic affected all landlords and the war in Ukraine then further shook economies again. A noticeable trend was rising demand for value retailers and retail parks.
“We addressed this trend with opening a retail park in Galeria Twierdza in Zamosc in November, and we already see a positive footfall growth. A number of value retailers have also been introduced to many of our shopping centres,” says Sekula.
The increase in the maintenance costs of shopping centres due to rising energy prices, wages and inflation, however, remain the key challenge.
“To address it and save energy, we have already implemented changes in our BMS systems optimising equipment’s operations. We installed LED lighting and invested in photovoltaic panels. We also educate and promote the idea of a responsible use of resources among our employees and tenants,” says Sekula. In another innovation, EPP went for energy-efficient Xmas decorations.
These and other efforts have already resulted in a saving in electricity consumption in the common areas at EPP managed retail properties of around 15% on average compared to 2019.
Along with ESG, another leading trend in the sector’s development in 2023 will be in the omnichannel space – combining online and offline for a better performance to give customers an opportunity to buy where, how and when they want.
